Organisation

Inra and Cirad are the joint commissioners and managers of the project. The Director of the Foresight Unit at Inra is responsible for the operation, which is being carried out by a joint Cirad-Inra team (four full-time equivalents). An Expert Committee, chaired by Henri Carsalade, comprises some twenty representatives from the principal French institutions which are stakeholders in policies and decision-making relative to food systems, providing opinions and advice.  A Support Group, made up of researchers and experts from Inra, Cirad and other research agencies and think-tanks, develops and analyses the different scenarios with the project team.

Time line

The analysis and construction of scenarios is based on the Agrimonde platform.  This must supply Inra and Cirad with a long-term context for collective thinking on the challenges associated with farming and food supplies throughout the world.
1. Construction of the platform: June 2006 – May 2007
2. Analysis of some scenarios in 2007
3. Discussion of initial results in early 2008

1. Construction of the Agrimonde platform
The platform comprises both qualitative and quantitative dimensions.
The qualitative module consists in:
- construction in interaction with the Support Group and Expert Committee of a grid to analyse scenarios which will enable their breakdown into hypotheses on the components  and variables of the whole Agrimonde system,
- choice by the Support Group of the scenarios to be analysed and constructed, subsequently validated by the Expert Committee,
- translation of the world and regional scenarios into Agrimonde components and variables.

The quantitative module enables the quantification of certain components in the scenarios, in order to:
1.  illustrate them,
2.  and test their coherence and different variants.
The components quantified (parameters) will enable the calculation for each scenario of needs and agricultural product resources.  The principal parameters concern food needs, land use and yields.

2. Implementation of the platform
For a given scenario, this consists in:
1. providing a value for parameters (regional level) at the horizon of 2050 in order to calculate regional needs and agricultural product resources, based on:
a) the quantified elements available,
b) a review of the literature and the opinions of experts (notably the Support Group),
2. placing a value on exchanges between regions based on regional needs and agricultural product resources,
3. adjusting parameter values in order to ensure coherence of the scenario, testing variants and studying the implications of different scenarios.

3. Discussion of the initial results

Following compilation of a final report, the results will be presented and offered for debate during a conference in the first half of 2008.