Publications > Cahiers (English)> N° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991

Marchés, revenus et politique céréalière
[Markets, Incomes and Cereal Policy]

• [An evaluation of EC cereal policy instruments], Jan Cornelis Blom
• [The demand for feed grains in the EEC. Current situation and impact of a price cut], Y. Dronne, H. Schmitt, L.-P. Mahé, C. Tavéra
• [Cereal substitutes in the EEC : impact of an import taxation policy], C. Le Mouël
• [French soft wheat exports : structural disequilibrium and intra-year disequilibria], Y. Le Roux, with the assistance of Annie Hofstetter
• [Future prospects in cereal farms. The case of Beauce-Gâtinais], R. Carles, with the assistance of T. Pelletier
• [Impact of a fall of cereal prices on the income of specialized farms], H. Schmitt, L.-P. Mahé, T. Trochet
• [Substitutions between cereals and other concentrates in the cattle feeding. An application to dairy farming], J.-C. Bureau, Mahmoud Danechvar-Kakhki

Une évaluation des instruments de la politique céréalière de la CEE
[An evaluation of EC cereal policy instruments]

Jan Cornelis Blom

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 19-50

Abstract : The EC arable sector is analysed on the basis of information about historical development of markets and prices and data from the Farm Structure Survey. With the help of a model for the EC cereal and compound feed raw material market, two policy scenarios are evaluated. Projections for supply, demand, agricultural income, effects on consumers and taxpayers are made for the period 1988 to 1996. The set aside instrument and the Maximum Guaranteed Quantities are evaluated against the background of these two scenarios. One of the main assumptions of the study, that yields will increase in the future as they did in the past, is examined and opportunities to extensify cereal production in the EC are analysed. On the basis of this information, the recently introduced regulation to extensify agricultural production is assessed for the cereal sector. It is concluded that the markets for arable products will only reach a reasonable equilibrium, given the instruments, if yields will increase less in the future than they did in the past ; otherwise a substantial acreage reduction of arable land has to take place, which will be very expensive. It is further concluded that research into the efficient use of fertilizers and agrochimicals, as well as information about it to the farmers, will be more important than a premium to extensify cereal production as recent price changes will have effect on the optimal level of these variable inputs.

Key-words : arable sector, cereal, agricultural income, farm structure, EEC, common agricultural policy, set-aside regulation.

Les céréales dans l'alimentation animale de la CEE. Place dans la consommation de matières premières et effets d'une baisse de prix
[The demand for feed grains in the EEC. Current situation and impact of a price cut]

Y. Dronne, H. Schmitt, L.-P. Mahé, C. Tavéra

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 51-69

Abstract : This paper analyses the effects of a 10 % price cut of European grains. The analysis is carried out through simulations based on an international model (MISS for "modèle international simplifié de simulation") focusing on EC and US agricultures. We show that grain demand for animal feed will increase in the EEC if animal productions, and especially pork and poultry, are not constrained neither by production quotas nore by price cuts. Nevertheless, in such a case, imports of grain substitutes and protein meals will not decrease substantially.

Key-words : CAP, EEC, model, animal feedstuff, protein plant, grain substitute.

Les produits substituts des céréales dans la CEE : impact d'une politique de taxation des importations
[Cereal substitutes in the EEC : impact of an import taxation policy]

C. Le Mouël

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 71-98

Abstract : This paper deals with the problem of cereal substitutes in the EEC. A static comparative world trade model of the main agricultural products is used to simulate the impact, in the Community and on world markets, of tariffs on EEC corn gluten feed or soyameal imports. The results are then compared with thoses obtained with a 10 % reduction in the Community price of cereals. The corn gluten feed tariff has a welfare improving effect in the EEC. However, its bu getary impact is fairly limited. The soyameal tariff does not have a significant effect on welfare, but it generates sizeable import levies which allows a substantial budget gain. Simulation results moderate the commonly held opinion that, in order to achieve budgetary economies, a decrease in the Community price of cereals would be more appropriate than tariffs on imported feeds.

Key-words : tariffs, distortions, protection, cereal substitute, rebalancing, common agricultural policy (CAP).

Les exportations françaises de blé tendre : déséquilibre structurel et déséquilibres intra-annuels
[French soft wheat exports : structural disequilibrium and intra-year disequilibria]

Y. Le Roux, with the assistance of Annie Hofstetter

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 99-133

Abstract : High dependency of French soft wheat market on exports suggests to model the exports function and to quantify their shifters. Our approach resorts to disequilibrium econometrics (transacted quantities are the minimum between French supply and foreign demand). Model specification involves possibility of spillover effects between EEC market and world market, and the studied market is assumed to be an aggregation over micro-disequilibria. Estimation results on annual data (1966-67 to 1988-89) strengthen the idea of a structural excess-supply of French soft wheat trade, and give a measure of demand shifters (demand nearly continuouslyconstrains supply). But these results have to be qualified by estimation based on monthly data (August 1970 to April 1989) : it shows that demand can be sometimes constrained by supply.

Key-words : soft wheat, exports, model, French market, structural disequilibrium.

Les perspectives des exploitations céréalières. Le cas de Beauce-Gâtinais
[Future prospects in cereal farms. The case of Beauce-Gâtinais]

R. Carles, with the assistance of T. Pelletier

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 135-158

Abstract : Recent changes in EC agricultural policy for cereal and large crops ask questions to researchers on the future of cereal farms. Through the results of a farming observatory in Beauce and Gâtinais, regions of the Parisean Basin, the recent evolution of farmers' income, new balance between productions and farm inputs during the period 1981-1987, are examined in a first part. Then, in a second part, several adaptations of cereal systems are studied with modelling of a normative cereal farm : reduction of cereals or oil seeds prices, premium for set aside land, increasing of farms surface are analysed. This allows to appreciate the sensibility in choice between productions and the repercussion on farmers' income.

Key-words : cereal, modelling, EC agricultural policy, crop system, Beauce, Gâtinais.

Impacts d'une baisse du prix des céréales sur les revenus des exploitations céréalières spécialisées
[Impact of a fall of cereal prices on the income of specialized farms]

H. Schmitt, L.-P. Mahé, T. Trochet

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 159-179

Abstract : The paper stems from the apparent large impact of a 10 % price cut on the farm income of grain growers measured by traditional producer surplus or other similar "static" measures. Induced effects on purchased or rented (land) variable input markets are emphasized. Trend effects (i.e. technical change, variable input price and family labour level trends) are also taken into account, particularly in order to assess the time necessary to cancel the impact of a 10 % lower price support policy : specialized farmers need only three years to recover original family input returns per head.

Key-words : cereal farms, farmers income, cereal, prices.

Les substitutions entre les céréales et les autres concentrés en alimentation animale. Une application à des élevages laitiers
[Substitutions between cereals and other concentrates in the cattle feeding. An application to dairy farming]

J.-C. Bureau, Mahmoud Danechvar-Kakhki

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 18-19, 1st and 2nd terms 1991, pp 181-213

Abstract : Linear programming methods and econometric methods are compared in estimating the demand response to price variations for concentrated feed in dairy production. The use of home-grown cereals is emphasized. LP model with a parametrization of prices makes possible the construction of response surfaces. Econometric estimation of a dual cost function allows the computation of Allen elasticities. Advantages and limits of the two approaches are compared and the potential interest of using pseudo-data is emphasized.

Key-words : micro-economics of production, demand system for feed components, elasticities of substitution, linear programming, dairy production.