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Publications > Cahiers (English)> N° 54, 1st term 2000

 

Family and non-family succession in the Upper-Austrian farm sector

Alfred M. STIGLBAUER *, Christoph R. WEISS ** (* Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, A-4040 Linz-Auhof, Austria - e-mail : a.stiglbauer@jk.uni-linz.ac.at
** Department of Food Economics and Consumption Studies, University of Kiel, Olshausenstrasse 40, D-24118 Kiel, Germany - e-mail : cweisse@food-econ.uni-kiel.de)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 54, 2000, pp 5-26

Summary - Using linked census data from 1980, 1985, and 1990 actual succession decisions of Upper-Austrian farm households are examined empirically. Two types of succession are distinguished by inspecting the age of the farm operator and other household members in the consecutive census observations : "family succession" (succession by the farm operator's child) and "non-family succession" (the farm is sold outside the family). Farm exits are considered as an additional category in the model. Several characteristics of the farm and of the farm operator's household are found to influence the succession decision significantly. Model choice and specification issues are discussed.

Key-words : micro-analysis of farm households, occupational and intergenerational mobility, qualitative choice models.

Crises et changements structurels dans la consommation alimentaire : un système structurel de demande
[Shocks and structural change in food consumption : structural demand systems]

Mario MAZZOCCHI* (* Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università di Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, 40126 Bologna, Italia - e-mail : mazzocchi@stat.unibo.ite)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 54, 2000, pp 27-46

Summary - This paper suggests a structural approach to demand modelling, which should help to better catch the modifications in consumer habits towards food and to identify sudden changes as those due to the release of information on food safety. In fact, traditional food demand models lose their reliability when significant structural changes occur over the time period under concern, especially when those changes are due to sudden food scares. Demand systems need to be modified in order to consider such changes. The structural approach suggested in this paper, once the hypothesis of parameter stability has been tested and rejected by appropriate tests, is based on the stochastic specification of some or all of the model coefficients. Maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters are obtained using the EM algorithm. An application on meat demand in Italy and the BSE crisis is proposed. The results show the relevance of the sudden BSE break of March 1996. However the changes in the expenditure share levels are accompanied by a sign inversion in the demand trend, which suggests that the initial shock tends to be reabsorbed. For the beef equation, the time-varying Marshallian own-price elasticity and the expenditure elasticity computed through the time-varying coefficients are analysed. The fall in the expenditure elasticity and the rise in the own-price elasticity suggest some effects due to the loss in consumer trust towards beef. Just after the food scare, prices tend to become a quality-proxy, so consumers avoid the low-price beef. On the other hand, the demand for food safety is income-elastic and as beef is perceived as a less safe food, the expenditure elasticity decreases. This is just one interpretation to the 'lack of rationality' emerging from the data if the BSE crisis is not explicitly considered. In general, the possibility to have time-varying estimates opens the way to acquire information about the time patterns of food consumption habits, such as changes in trends or changes in price and expenditure elasticities. The limits of the suggested approach mainly lie in the large amount of data required by the estimation method, in order to avoid undesirable effects linked to the choice of the initial values.

Key-words : structural demand system, structural change, BSE, meat consumption, EM algorithm.

L'agriculture française entre logiques sectorielles et territoriales (1960-1985)
[French agriculture between territorial and sector-based rationales (1960-1985)]

Martino NIEDDU*, Antonin GAIGNETTE * (*Université de Reims, ESSAI / OMI (Etudes sur les Systèmes et Structures Agro-Industriels/Organisations Marchandes et Institutions), UFR des Sciences économiques et de gestion, salle 1020, 57 bis rue P. Taittinger, 51096 Reims Cedex -
e-mail : martino.nieddu@univ-reims.fr ; antonin.gaignette@univ-reims.fr)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 54, 2000, pp 47-87

Summary - The present article has two objectives. The first one is to give an update of the literature concerning sector-based and territorial regulation after the publication of the book "Théorie de la régulation, l'état des savoirs" (1995). These new contributions are organised around the notions of 'productive configuration' and 'governance structure', the former bringing up the problems regarding the boundaries of the regulation sphere and the plurality of productive configurations, and the latter introducing the dynamics of collective action. Consequently there two notions call for a re-reading of the regulationist approach which not only involves structural analysis but also which is both systemic and strategic. Our second objective is to examine these notions by studying the dynamics of French agriculture during the period of the 'trente glorieuses' in order to find the system appropriate for describing a plurality of configurations. In contrast to the representation of a fordist agriculture as a unique productivist configuration regulated by sector-based institutions, our interpretative hypothesis is based on two coexisting productivist agricultural systems, a first one made up of medium-sized farms supported by the development of industrial capital and a second one consisting of large-sized farms seeking to protect themselves from industrial capital.

Key-words : French agriculture, regulationist approach, structure of governance, territorial development, fordism.

L'apport de la microéconométrie à l'évaluation des politiques publique
[The benefits of microeconometric approaches to the evaluation of public policies)]

Thierry MAGNAC* (* INRA-LEA et CREST, ENS, 48 Boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris - e-mail : Thierry.Magnac@ens.fr)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 54, 2000, pp 89-113

Summary - In this paper, we survey the microeconometric literature on the quantitative evaluation of public interventions in the labour market, focussing upon the measure of programme effects for the participants to the programme ("the effect of the treatment on the treated"). We briefly summarize the main statistical problem that evaluation studies are confronted with, that is endogenous selection. We distinguish estimation methods according to the use of controlled experiment, natural experiment or non experimental data. We continue by describing an example of programme evaluation where we study the effects of public training schemes for youths, on their subsequent employment probabilities. We use non experimental data on youth employment histories at the beginning of the nineties in France and we contrast the results of the evaluation between urban and rural areas. The main result is that the effects of training schemes on employment probabilities are not significant in both areas. We continue by discussing the benefits and costs of experimental and non experimental data according to the type of public policies and their intended range and by presenting some examples of limitations, when using controlled or natural experiments, that have been described in the literature. Despite these limitations, we conclude by insisting upon the need to more closely relate the data collection process to any programme evaluation.

Key-words : public policies, evaluation, selection, experimental data.
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