Publications > Cahiers (English)> N° 57, 4th term 2000

• Socio-economic and ecological effects of alternative direct payment regimes on different Swiss Alpine regions , C. FLURY, N. GOTSCH, P. RIEDER
  
• Positive mathematical programming with multiple data points : a crosssectional estimation procedure , T. HECKELEI, W. BRITZ texte au format PDF
• La filière bovine en Bretagne et la crise de la "vache folle" de 1996 : une analyse interindustrielle , P. BOSSARD, Y. LÉON, M. QUINQU, Y. SURRY
  [Brittany's beef industry and the 1996 "mad cow" disease crisis : an interindustry analysis]
• Coordination entre producteurs et maîtrise des aléas de demande, S. GAUCHER, V. HOVELAQUE, L.-G. SOLER texte au format PDF
  [Coordination between firms and supply organization]
  

Socio-economic and ecological effects of alternative direct payment regimes on different Swiss Alpine regions

Christian FLURY*, Nikolaus GOTSCH*, Peter RIEDER* (* Agricultural Economics, ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland - e-mail : christian.flury@iaw.agrl.ethz.ch ; nikolaus.gotsch@iaw.agrl.ethz.ch ; peter. rieder@iaw.agrl.ethz.ch)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 57, 2000, pp 5-26

Summary - Differences in land productivity, input and technology requirements and production costs are functions of topographic, climatic, environmental, agronomic and infrastructural characteristics which lead to considerable variations in land-use intensity. Landuse also offers obvious examples of spatial environmental externalities. Policy-makers concerned with regional rural development face an increasing need for indicators which encompass a wide diversity of attributes and environmental assets in a spatial setting. In this paper, a spatial sectoral linear programming model is described and implemented for two Swiss Alpine regions. The effects of different policy assumptions for land-use payments are investigated. Special reference is made to the effects of varying types of direct payments on the amount of fallow land in various topographic situations. It can be shown that ecological effectiveness can be improved, at lower costs for the taxpayer, by giving due consideration to regional and spatial aspects when designing agricultural policy measures. At the same time, the results show that the elimination of the actual income-supporting direct payments (the socalled base payments) may cause a collapse of agriculture in Swiss mountain regions.

lKey-words : land-use modelling, linear programming, multi-criteria analysis, agricultural policy, direct payments.

Thomas HECKELEI*, Wolfgang BRITZ* (* Institute of Agricultural Policy, Market Research and Economic Sociology, University of Bonn, Nussallee 21, 53115 Bonn, Germany - e-mail : heckelei@agp.uni-bonn.de ; britz@agp.uni-bonn.de )

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 57, 2000, pp 27-50

Summary - This paper introduces an approach to the specification of non-linear cost functions in regional programming models. It can be characterised as an application of positive mathematical programming (PMP) to multiple observations. The application of PMP in policy relevant agricultural supply models as a mean for calibration has significantly increased during the last ten years. However, many modellers have not reflected the arbitrary and potentially implausible response behaviour of the resulting models implied by standard applications of the approach. Paris and Howitt (1998) interpret PMP as the estimation of a non-linear cost function and generalize the specification by employing a "Maximum Entropy (ME)" procedure. However, their approach still lacks a sufficient empirical base and involves a parameterisation to enforce correct curvature of the cost function, which induces significant problems in applications. The suggested methodology is designed to exploit information contained in a cross sectional sample to specify - regionally specific - quadratic cost functions with cross effects for crop activities. It also provides a solution to the curvature problem. The approach is applied to regional programming models for 22 regions in France. An ex-post simulation across the 1992 CAP-reform shows plausible results with respect to the simulation behaviour of the resulting models. Paths for extensions and improvements of this methodology are identified.

Key-words : positive mathematical programming, maximum entropy estimation, curvature restrictions, ex-post validation.

La filière bovine en Bretagne et la crise de la "vache folle" de 1996 : une analyse interindustrielle
[Brittany's beef industry and the 1996 "mad cow" disease crisis : an interindustry analysis]

Patricia BOSSARD*, Yves LÉON**, Maurice QUINQU***, Yves SURRY** (* Bureau de l'Analyse économique et de la Prospective, ministère de l'Agriculture, 78, rue de Varenne, 75007 Paris - e-mail : bossard@agriculture.gouv.fr ** INRA, Unité d'économie et sociologie rurales, rue Adolphe Bobierre, CS 61103, 35011 Rennes cedex - e-mail : leon@roazhon.inra.fr ; surry@roazhon.inra.fr *** INRA, UMR en Economie, en Droit rural et agro-alimentaire, rue de la Géraudière, BP71627, 44316 Nantes cedex 03)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 57, 2000, pp 51-93

Summary - This paper analyses the beef industry in Brittany in light of the events (long term decline in meat demand and "mad cow" disease crisis) affecting the European Union (EU) beef sector. After a presentation of its main features and its role in the region's economy, we assess the sector's and Brittany agrofood industry's responses to the changes in meat demand resulting from the 1996 "mad cow" disease crisis. To do so, we use an input/output (I-O) table of Brittany's economy and of its agro-food complex. This I-O table has the following features : i) Brittany agriculture is broken down into six multiple output sectors defined according to economic size and production orientation ; ii) food-processing industries are classified into six activities ; and iii) the rest of Brittany's economy is represented by eight sectors. A stochastic simulation based on adjustments of meat demand in France and other EU member countries resulting from the 1996 "mad cow" disease crisis is undertaken using Brittany I-O table. Simulation results indicate that Brittany's beef industry reduces its production by about 12 to 14 % when beef meat demand in the EU declines by 16 %. However, total output in agriculture and other non agro-food sectors of Brittany react marginally to a decline in beef meat demand.

Key-words : beef, input-output table, Brittany, entropy method, BSE.

Coordination entre producteurs et maîtrise des aléas de demande
[Coordination between firms and supply organization]

S. GAUCHER*, V. HOVELAQUE**, L.-G. SOLER* ( * INRA, LORIA, 65, bd de Brandebourg, 94205 Ivry sur Seine cedex - e-mail : gaucher@ivry.inra.fr ; soler@ivry.inra.fr ** ENSAR/INSFA, Département Économie rurale et Gestion, 65, rue de Saint Brieuc, CS 84125, 35042 Rennes cedex - e-mail : Vincent.Hovelaque@agrorennes.educagri.fr)

In : Cahiers d'Economie et Sociologie Rurales, n° 57, 2000, pp 95-125

Summary - In this paper, we analyse the inventory and ordering policies of two firms, when (i) each firm has its own supplier and market but, (ii), the first firm may act as a second supplier of the second one. This allows us to study the interest of improving horizontal coordination between producers in order to minimize shortages or overstocking phenomena due to demand hazards : such producer-to-producer relationships are indeed more and more developed in numerous agro-food chains (like fruit chains). We develop a general newsvendor-like formulation of the optimal procurement and inventory policies, and calculate chain profits according to various levels of coordination between the two firms. An application to the case of a uniform demand is analysed more precisely. We then use a numerical analysis to define the conditions under which a high level of coordination may be interesting for both firms and the whole chain.

Key-words : stock policy, supply policy, coordination, food chain, supply chain management.